Starts and Fits

Sports fans are funny. They can be totally bipolar and no one says a word. This year has provided great examples.

In the NFL, the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions got off to amazing starts of 4-1 and 5-0 respectively. Fans of those teams and sportscasters alike raved about how improved the teams were and were already talking playoffs and even championships. We're now into Week 11 of the NFL season and things look very different.

In the NHL, the most financially successful team has been the least successful team on the ice for over 40 years. That would be the Toronto Maple Leafs. Less than two weeks ago they stood atop the NHL standings for the first time in more than 17 full seasons. In this case it was almost exclusively the fans that went bonkers. By and large, broadcasters had been teased with temporary success and eventual failure for too long.

Skeptics and cynics laughed at the excited fans. They truly were fans -- that is fanatical. Logic is discarded. Calm is a foreign concept. People had jumped aboard the bandwagon, and drank deeply of the Kool-Aid. When you consider the fact that these fans have had virtually nothing to cheer for, nothing but grief for years and more, you can understand why people might be inclined to want to go off the deep end.

Here's a bold prediction! None of the three will make the playoffs! I'm not even sure any will make it a close call! The teams just aren't used to winning. As such, they lack a culture of winning. The Leafs may have the second most Stanley Cup championships (behind the Montreal Canadiens) but that is ancient history. The Bills lost umpteen games in overtime last year, extremely rare in the NFL, perhaps showing that they lacked the talent or guts to win. The Lions have been the NFL's losingest team for over a decade. That and injuries to key personnel will ultimately keep them all from success this season. Bills, Lions and Maple Leafs fans will have to deal with beleaguerment for at least another season.

Good starts do not make good seasons. They can be an important part of a good season, but can always just be statistical anomalies. All three teams have struggled of late, each for their own reasons. In some cases, injuries played a significant part. In others, it was just a matter of reality setting in. Buffalo has fallen to 5-4 and Detroit to 6-3. Detroit is still positioned to make the playoffs but Buffalo isn't. If you project their recent play for the rest of the season both will fall short. The Leafs are still tied in points for the lead in their division but have basically been in free-fall for two weeks. They are rated 2nd in their division behind the Buffalo Sabres since they have 1 fewer win (and 2 extra loses in extra time). They are only 3 points ahead of the miss-the-playoffs cutoff line. The Boston Bruins are only 4 points behind with 2 games in hand and are surging. Projecting their current record would still place them in the playoffs, but their most recent pace would guarantee them permission to play golf immediately after the regular season ends for the eighth straight year. With their starting goaltender out with "concussion-like symptoms", the local vernacular for a concussion, there is no telling when he will return. Without him, the team will surely fall. To make matters worse, of late they are only getting scoring from 1 of their 4 forward lines. Radically unbalanced scoring like that makes it easier for opponents to completely neutralize your offense.

Will all three teams missing the playoffs teach fans not to count their chicken before they've hatched? Not a chance! Where would the fun be in that? When you are used to your team being terrible you are even more desperate to celebrate every minor victory and even moral victories. It would be nice if rabid fans didn't get so drunk on the relative success of their teams that they become belligerent and hostile towards anyone that dares doubt, but don't hold your breath for that to happen any time soon. Reason and fanaticism just don't mix well, so it's understandable that manners and tolerance are in scarce supply.

Now, if we can only get the 7 billion people in the world to limit their fanaticism to ultimately inconsequential matters like sports, what a wonderful world it would be.